高级检索

一种改进的TSLANet有效波高时空预测订正模型

An improved TSLANet model for spatio-temporal forecasting correction of significant wave height

  • 摘要: 海浪有效波高(significant wave height, SWH)的精确预报对海洋工程、航运和渔业安全至关重要。针对有效波高时间序列中多尺度周期共存、强时序连续传递以及时空特性耦合等导致的数值预报结果中的误差问题,本研究提出了一种基于时间序列轻量级自适应网络(time series lightweight adaptive network, TSLANet)改进模型,命名为多尺度特征增强型订正模型(multi-scale feature enhanced correct model, MS-FECM)。该模型通过设计的多尺度自适应频谱块(multi-scale adaptive spectral block, MS-ASB)以及卷积双向长短期记忆网络(convolutional neural network-bidirectional long short-term memory, CNN-BiLSTM)混合模块,分别替代TSLANet模型中的自适应频谱块(adaptive spectral block, ASB)和交互式卷积模块(interactive convolution block, ICB),实现了在订正过程中针对SWH数据的全尺度周期覆盖处理以及局部细节与时序关联的协同建模。实验使用日本海海域实测SWH数据进行验证,结果表明,相比原始数值模式预报结果,模型订正后的结果显著降低了预测误差,平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.2827,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为0.3149,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.3729,RMSE相对数值模式预报结果降低了17.1%。在与FPPformer、PatchTST、CNN-BiLSTM等神经网络模型的对比中,本研究方法在MAE、MAPE、RMSE等指标上均表现出最优性能,验证了该模型在海浪高度数值预报动态误差订正中的有效性和优越性,在复杂海况下展现出良好的订正性能。

     

    Abstract: Accurate forecasting of significant wave height (SWH) is crucial for the safety of marine engineering, shipping, and fisheries. To address errors in numerical forecast results arising from the coexistence of multi-scale periods, strong temporal continuity, and spatiotemporal coupling in SWH time series, this study proposes an improved model based on the time series lightweight adaptive network (TSLANet), named the multi-scale feature-enhanced correct model (MS-FECM). This model incorporates a specially designed multi-scale adaptive spectral block (MS-ASB) and a convolutional neural network-bidirectional long short-term memory (CNN-BiLSTM) hybrid module, which replace the adaptive spectral block (ASB) and the interactive convolution block (ICB) in the TSLANet model, respectively. This achieves full-scale periodic coverage processing of SWH data during the correction process, as well as the synergistic modeling of local details and temporal correlations. The model was validated using observed SWH data from the Sea of Japan. The results indicate that, compared to the original numerical model forecast results, the corrected model significantly reduced prediction errors, with a MAE of 0.2827, a MAPE of 0.3149, and a RMSE of 0.3729, representing a 17.1% reduction in RMSE relative to the numerical model forecasts. When compared with neural network models such as FPPformer, PatchTST, and CNN-BiLSTM, the method proposed in this study demonstrated superior performance across metrics including MAE, MAPE, and RMSE. This validates the model’s effectiveness and superiority in correcting dynamic errors in numerical wave-height forecasts, demonstrating excellent correction performance under complex sea conditions.

     

/

返回文章
返回