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基于IPCC-CMIP6预估印太海域气候变迁及其对珊瑚礁的可能影响

Projection of climate novelty in the Indo-Pacific Ocean and possible impacts on coral reefs based on IPCC-CMIP6

  • 摘要: 人为活动造成的温室效应对全球海洋气候包括物理、化学和生态属性产生了明显影响。其中,印度洋-太平洋海域(简称印太海域)的变化尤其显著并对暖水珊瑚礁构成严重威胁。为此,本研究基于海洋观测资料和政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)第六次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的模拟结果,采用马氏距离(Mahalanobis distance, MD)等衡量气候变迁的方法,评估了不同共享社会经济路径(shared socioeconomic pathways, SSPs)的不同气候预估情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5)下,相对于历史(1971—2000年)气候态,未来(2051—2080年)印太海域海表面温度(SST)、表层海水pH值和表层溶解氧(DO)含量的变化及其对暖水珊瑚礁的可能影响。结果表明:①模式结果可以很好地再现历史海洋气候态的空间分布特征,且多模式集合平均可明显降低单模式的误差;②不同气候预估情景下,未来印太海域海洋气候态将发生明显变化,包括SST显著上升,pH值和DO含量明显下降并且其变化随温室气体排放浓度增高而加剧;③未来印太海域海洋气候将发生明显变迁,并出现气候新特性(climate novelty),其中,热带东印度洋、热带西太平洋、北太平洋及南半球中高纬度区域MD变化最显著,约有15.23%(SSP1-2.6)、86.12%(SSP2-4.5)和99.89%(SSP5-8.5)印太海域的气候新特性将达到中等程度(MD>8),而约有89.04%(SSP5-8.5)的印太海域气候新特性将达到极端程度(MD>12);④1970—2080年,印太海域珊瑚礁密集分布区将升温1.89~2.17 ℃,pH值降低0.21~0.22,DO含量减少0.006~0.007 mol/m3,红海和波斯湾的变化尤为突出。

     

    Abstract: The greenhouse effect, caused by anthropogenic activities, has exerted a significant impact on the physical, chemical and bio-ecological properties of the global ocean. Among them, the changes in the Indian and Pacific Oceans (Indo-Pacific) are particularly significant and pose a serious threat to the warm-water coral reefs. Therefore, based on ocean observation data and the outputs of the Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this paper uses Mahalanobis distance (MD) to evaluate the changes in sea surface temperature (SST), surface seawater pH, and surface dissolved oxygen (DO) content in the Indo-Pacific region in the future (2051−2080) and their potential impacts on warm water coral reefs under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, referred to as SSPs), relative to the historical climatology (1971−2000). Results show that: (1) the model outputs can well reproduce the spatial distribution characteristics of the historical ocean climatology, and the multi-model ensemble mean can significantly reduce the errors of individual model simulations; (2) the future ocean climatology of Indo-Pacific will change dramatically under different climate projection scenarios, including an increase in SST, a decrease in pH and DO, and the changes will intensify with the increase of greenhouse gas emission concentrations; (3) there will be significant changes in the marine climate of the Indo-Pacific, with the emergence of climate novelty. Substantial climate shift is projected to occur in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, tropical western Pacific, northern Pacific, and mid-high latitude regions in the Southern Ocean, with approximately 15.23% (SSP1-2.6), 86.12% (SSP2-4.5), and 99.89% (SSP5-8.5) of the Indo-Pacific region experiencing a moderate degree of climate novelty (MD>8), while around 89.04% (SSP5-8.5) of the Indo-Pacific region will reach an extreme degree of climate novelty (MD>12); (4) From 1970 to 2080, the densely distributed areas of coral reefs in the Indo-Pacific will experience an increase in temperature of approximately 1.89-2.17 ℃, a decrease in pH of 0.21-0.22, and a decrease in DO content of 0.006-0.007 mol/m3, and the changes in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf are particularly prominent.

     

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