Abstract: Under the combined influence of the changes of water and sediment conditions in the river basin and the construction of large-scale projects in the estuary, the Changjiang Estuary presents a new pattern of erosion and deposition. In order to predict the evolution, the morphological numerical model (Delft3D) of the Changjiang Estuary established in our previous study was used, and future scenarios with different river sediment discharge and relative sea-level rise were considered. The results show that the Changjiang Estuary will undergo overall erosion by 2035, especially in the main channel and at the edge of the shallow shoals. Accretion will only occur at local areas of shoals. By 2050, the inner estuary will maintain net erosion, while the mouth bar area will show slightly net accretion under the condition of current sediment discharge. However, it will convert to net scour under the condition of extremely low sediment discharge. Sea-level rise will only partly offset net erosion of the mouth bar area, and will not change the accretion/erosion status. It is suggested that the future evolution in some areas of the Changjiang Estuary may have adverse effects on the comprehensive management and protection of the estuary. Therefore, countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the channelshoal stability, protection of important tidal flats, safety assessment of major projects, assessment of scour-induced disasters and reevaluation on the defense standard of coastal levee under the new pattern conditions. This research can provide reference for comprehensive control and sustainable development of the Changjiang Estuary in the new era.