Abstract:
Ningde is one of the regions that face serious storm surge hazards, where major marine projects including the Ningde nuclear power plant (NNPP) are located. Considering the specific geographical location and serious marine hazards, this study aims to provide a comprehensively quantitative assessment on the risk characteristics of storm surge centered on the site of NNPP, including tides, Mean Sea Level (MSL) change, fundamental characteristics of typhoons and storm surges, and particularly the Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS). The results show that the highest and lowest astronomical tidal level exceeding 10% of tidal sea levels are over 355 cm and -341 cm below the MSL in this region, respectively. The variability of MSL, based on the tide gauge observations for last 60 years is about 0.162 cm/a. The air pressure at the typhoon center with return period of 1 000 years is 895 hPa, and the corresponding radius of the maximum weed speed is 40km. A large number of numerical experiments have been carried out in this study for the impact of movement directions and typhoon speeds on the storm surges and the difference between positive and negative storm surges forced by typhoons. Model results show that positive storm surges have mainly caused by the typhoons with movement directions around 305° (295°~315°) and passing through the south of the NNPP and the surge goes up with stronger typhoon wind speed. The maximum storm surge is 526.8cm, which is induced by the typhoon in direction of 295° and the speed of 28km/h as well as by the track of passing through the point 40km to the south of NNPP. For minus storm surges, the typhoons in movement directions of 355°~360° and 0°~15° provide the largest probability of the sea level decreasing. Among them, the minus PMSS is -301.9cm, which is induced by the typhoon in the movement direction of 5° and the movement speed of 30km/h with the track of passing through the point 30 km to the south of NNPP.