| 摘要: |
| 近几十年来，在气候变化和人类活动的影响下，我国近岸河口海域尤其是长江口及邻近海域生态灾害频繁发生，严重影响了海洋生态系统的健康及其服务功能。本研究基于政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC）气候变化风险理论框架，构建了河口浮游植物生态系统的气候变化综合风险评估指标体系，并利用IPCC 第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）地球系统模式数据，分别计算分析了在温室气体低（RCP 2.6）、中等（RCP 4.5）和高（RCP 8.5）浓度排放情景下未来不同时期（2030—2039、2050—2059、2090—2099年）长江口及邻近海域浮游植物生态的致灾因子危害性、承灾体暴露度和脆弱性及其综合风险。结果表明： RCP 2.6、4.5和8.5情景下，到21世纪中期，致灾因子危害性均有明显上升，其中RCP 4.5和8.5情景下，到21世纪末，还将大幅度增加，且以RCP 8.5情景最为显著，而RCP 2.6情景下则相反，有所下降；RCP 2.6情景下，高暴露度区域主要位于长江口附近，不同年代的变化差异较小；RCP 4.5和8.5情景下高暴露度区域明显大于RCP 2.6情景，尤其是后者到21世纪末期扩大至长江口邻近海域；脆弱性总体呈现近岸高远岸低的分布特征，且变化均较小；RCP 2.6、4.5和8.5情景下，综合风险均呈现近岸高远岸低，且有增加的趋势，但以RCP 8.5情景最为明显，并在21世纪末达到最大。 |
| 关键词: 海洋生态学 浮游植物 河口生态 综合风险 气候变化 长江口 |
| DOI：10.3969/J.ISSN.2095-4972.20220507001 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”专项（2017YFA0604902）； 国家社会科学基金（22BGL185） |
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| Assessment of climate change on comprehensive risks of phytoplankton ecosystem in Changjiang Estuary and adjacent waters |
| GUO Haixia,CAI Rongshuo,TAN Hongjian |
| (Marine Sustainable Development Research Center, Third Institute of Oceanography, MNR, Xiamen 361005, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In recent decades, due to climate change and human activities, ecological disasters occurred frequently in Chinas offshore estuarine waters, especially in Changjiang Estuary and adjacent waters, where the health of marine ecosystems and their service functions have been affected. Based on the IPCC theoretical framework of comprehensive risk of climate change and related literature, this paper firstly formed a comprehensive risk of climate change assessment index system for estuarine phytoplankton ecosystems, and combined with IPCC CMIP5 earth system model data, calculated and analyzed the future (2030—2039, 2050—2099 and 2090—2099) hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk of phytoplankton ecosystems under different climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5). Results show that under RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the hazard of disaster-causing factors will increase significantly by the middle of this century. Under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, it will increase significantly by the end of 21st century and it will be the most significant with RCP 8.5. While under RCP 2.6 scenario it will decrease and high exposure areas will mainly located in areas near Changjiang Estuary with little change in different years. High exposure areas under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are significantly larger than those under RCP 2.6 scenario, especially the latter it will expand to its adjacent waters by the end of this century. Vulnerability generally shows a distribution characteristic of high near the shore and low in the offshore with little fluctuations. Under RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, comprehensive risk shows a strengthened trend of high near shore and low offshore with the most seriousness under RCP 8.5 scenario to its maximum at the end of this century. |
| Key words: marine ecology phytoplankton estuarine ecology comprehensive risk climate change Changjiang Estuary |
